Too Much Faith in Numbers
Kendrick Meek is the Florida Democratic party’s candidate for US Senate. I didn’t vote for him, but now it’s time to close ranks and take the fight to both Charlie “Opportunist” Crist and the GOP’s Marco Rubio. As much as I like to see confidence, though, perhaps Meek’s campaign manager, Abe Dyk, is bit fixated with electoral math.
CRIST CANNOT WIN
The math does not add up for Florida’s elected Republican Governor.
With universal name recognition, Charlie Crist abandoned his Republican primary fight against Marco Rubio. Only 39% of Democrats supported Crist at a time when Kendrick was completely unknown beyond his district, a number that will be a high-water mark for him running against a Real Democrat.
With Republicans coalescing around a Tea Party candidate, and Democrats with Kendrick, the math does not exist to elect Charlie Crist. With an expected turnout of 43% Democrats and 40% Republicans, Kendrick needs to win 75% of registered Democrats and just 17% of the registered Independent vote to secure 35% of the vote total. 35%-40% is all that is needed to win in a three-way race.
The apparent strength that Crist is currently registering in the polls will not last. Even with all the Independents, Crist cannot win without getting more than 30% of Democrats and Republicans, and it is unlikely either group will support him as he twists and turns his positions over the next 10 weeks. The Charlie Crist sideshow does not have enough of the electorate to result in a victory, and with no state party apparatus, it is only a matter of time before Crist’s campaign begins limping towards the finish line. There are no runoffs in Florida elections, and for Charlie Crist, there may not be any more chances either.
He could not stand up against Rubio, and he will never be able to stand up for Floridians as a U.S. Senator.
THE REAL CHOICE: MEEK OR RUBIO
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Filed under: 2010 Elections, Florida, Politics Tagged: charlie crist, democrats, gop, kendrick meek, marco rubio, republicans