Kushibo has some hig-powered speculations about the reasons for Dear Leaders recent visit to Manchuria.

Let’s not forget that Kim Jong-il tried at one time to establish a SAR of its own in Shinŭiju, which may have failed because China was angered at North Korea’s unilateralism in its own country. Could that be the reason behind the Dear Leader’s visit: He’s not just trying to get permission for a dynastic transfer, but permission for Kim Jong-un (under the auspices of his father while he’s still alive and after that, his regent uncle, Jang Songthaek) to pursue Chinese-style economic reforms?

Think about it: The Deng Xiaoping model of “socialism with Chinese characteristics” would be the best model for North Korea’s leadership to (a) preserve their rule by forestalling collapse using a proven system that allows them to maintain a high degree of control, (b) keep meddling Chinese hands away from the DPRK as much as possible, (c) make nice with the neighbors, and (d) potentially make them all rich, which is glorious.

Though he’s no doubt surrounded by yes men, KJI has got to see the writing on the wall, and it looks like it might spell Ceaucescu. Could it be that in his old age — in frail health and standing at death’s door — he has softened a bit and wants to put the country (or at least his son) on a different trajectory? Instead of setting his son up to be North Korea’s Gorbachev, could he be setting him up to be North Korea’s Deng?

But, what if the previous SAR reforms did work, and worked all too well. Perhaps they challenged the political legitimacy of the political economic model the Kim regime has established requiring all the ideoloical blather that so annoyed the Chinese. Now, though, Beijing wants not just a basket case economy, but a viable competitor for South Korea and stable bulwark against the US and Japan in the region. So, Beijing’s price for supporting another Kim in Pyongyang is real economic reform. The nostalgic romp through Manchuria was just window-dressing to mollify hard-liners in Pyongyang set to lose when reforms kick back in. Overall, I think the geopolitical aspects of the bilateral relationship are more important for Beijing than the economic ones. Pyongyang also has no choice but to become Beijing’s client now.

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Filed under: East Asia, Korea Tagged: china, deng xiaoping, dprk, kim jong il, kim jong un, prc. manchuria, sar